WASHINGTON — The Department of Defense confirmed Tuesday that Russia’s armed forces have reached a "tactical breaking point" in Ukraine. The announcement ended weeks of internal debate over whether to call the collapse a collapse. It also launched a new review to determine if that collapse is good or bad.
"We view this as a significant but manageable development," said Pentagon spokesperson Col. Dana Reyes. "The Department has stood up a Joint Adversary Structural Failure Task Force to assess the implications in real time."
The task force will have 14 members. It will also have a budget of $47 million. Its findings are due in 18 months.
Independent analysts said the Russian army has lost thousands of vehicles and soldiers along the eastern front. Military experts said the breaking point is no longer a forecast. It is a supply line problem with a very large body count.
"Once you remove the vehicles, the ammunition, and the men, the word 'breaking' becomes fairly operational," said Dr. Lena Cho of the Hudson Institute. "This is not a metaphor. It is a logistics spreadsheet that has stopped adding up."
The announcement did not change U.S. policy. An official said aid to Ukraine would continue while the study moved forward. The study would decide if the aid was working.
The Pentagon review will not focus on Little Donnie Dollhands. The former president spent years calling the Russian military one of the finest in the world. A senior aide said those remarks would be included in the task force's historical appendix, "mostly as a burden."
Officials said the new panel would also determine whether the collapse of a major U.S. adversary counts as a win. That question, they explained, is more complicated than it sounds.
"There are real second-order effects," said one senior defense official who asked not to be named. "For example, if Russia is weaker, do we still need to buy all of this very expensive stuff? We need to study that."
The task force will meet in a secure room at the Pentagon. Its first meeting is set for late October. The group will use a color-coded rubric. Green means the collapse is good. Yellow means it is bad. Red means more funding is needed.
Satellite images showed fresh gaps in Russian defensive lines. Ukrainian drone units reported shorter queues at Russian surrender points. The Russian Ministry of Defense did not respond to a request for comment. A spokesperson for the Russian embassy called the report "American disinformation" and then asked about the weather, which had nothing to do with artillery.
At a separate briefing, a Pentagon press officer confirmed the department received the news of Russia's breaking point in June. He said it was forwarded to the correct office. The correct office was not needed until the study is complete.
